The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is straining healthcare resources in New York City and around the country. Healthcare systems, hospitals, and local area officials around the United States are caring for or preparing to care for COVID-19 patients.
The charts below show the projected thirty-day availability of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators, both nationally and by state, using low-, middle-, and high-hospitalization rate scenarios. These graphs will be updated weekly and were last updated April 22.
BRG’s Mandy Asgeirsson, Eva DuGoff, and Greg Russo recently published Short Supply: The Availability of Healthcare Resources During the COVID-19 Pandemic, a white paper that describes our approach to estimating hospital bed, ICU bed, and ventilator capacity. As of April 1, our analysis showed that while many states had sufficient capacity in the short term, demand was expected to outstrip supply in most states within ninety days. The updated analysis finds that within thirty days, most states will have available hospital beds, but the demand for ventilators will exceed the supply in some states. Note that this analysis does not take into account additional ventilators that may have been deployed to states.
Leveraging the Penn Medicine COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (the CHIME Model), we project state-level COVID-19 resource needs and supply shortfalls from best-case (5 percent of cases need hospitalizations) to worst-case (20 percent of cases need hospitalization) scenarios. Reflecting recent CMS guidance, this projection model accounts for the cancelling of elective procedures to better estimate hospital, ICU, and ventilator availability. In the white paper, we assume a six-day doubling time based on the best available information at the time of writing. In the charts below, we use a ten-day doubling time to account for changes in the spread of the virus. Model parameters may be updated periodically to reflect new evidence.
Projection models are subject to the limitations of available data and research on the nature and severity of COVID-19 infections. We provide low-, middle-, and high-hospitalization rate scenarios to reflect the inherent uncertainty around the estimates, and we note that the uncertainty of these estimates increases with longer time frames.
Policymakers in states should continue to monitor the demand for hospital services and consider inpatient bed expansion plans as part of a comprehensive plan for addressing COVID-19 impacts. In addition, other strategies could include using telehealth programs to reduce COVID patients from using emergency department services and hospital-at-home programs to help provide sufficiently stable COVID-19 patients with care at home.